Publications
- “Equity Returns
and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies,” with M. Jahan-Parvar and X. Lui, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,
45, 2013, 1117–1146. Accepted
paper version.
- “Oil and US GDP:
A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination,” with F. Ravazzolo, Journal
of Money, Credit, and Banking, 45, 2013, 449-463. Accepted paper
version.
- “An Empirical
Investigation of Stock Market Behavior in the Middle East and North
Africa,” with A.R. Cheng and M.R. Jahan-Parvar, Journal of Empirical Finance,
17, 2010, 413-427. Accepted paper
version.
- ''Reconsideration
of the Markov Chain Evidence on Unemployment Rate Asymmetry," Studies
in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 12, 2008, No. 3, Article
6. Accepted
paper version.
- ''Out-of-Sample
Forecasting of Unemployment Rates with Pooled STVECM Forecasts," with
C. Milas, International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 2008,
101-121. Accepted
paper version.
- Nonlinear Time
Series Analysis of Business Cycles, editor, with C. Milas and D. van
Dijk, Contributions to Economic Analysis 276, 2006,
Amsterdam: Elsevier. Now published at: HERE.
- "Comments on
'Structural Change in Macroeconomic Time Series','' Journal of
Macroeconomics, 28, 2006, 151–153. Working
paper version.
- " An
Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the
Pre-World War I and Interwar Periods," with R.E. Parker, Economic
Inquiry, 42, 2004, 88-100. Accepted paper
version.
- "A
Multivariate STAR Analysis of the Relationship Between
Money and Output," with D. van Dijk and P.H. Franses,
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 5, 2001, 506-532. Working paper version.
- "Review of Forecasting
Non-Stationary Economic Time Series, by Michael P. Clements and David
F. Hendry," Journal of Economic Literature, 39, 2001,
570-571. Working paper
version.
- "Independence
and Changes in the Size Distribution of Income," in Slottje, D. (ed.) Festschrift for C. Dagum, Springer-Verlag,
1999, 345-358.
- Nonlinear Time
Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data, Editor, Kluwer
Academic Press, 1999. Springer's
web site.
- "Higher-Order
Residual Analysis for Simple Bilinear and Threshold Autoregressive Models
with the TR Test," in Rothman, P. (ed.) Nonlinear Time Series
Analysis of Economic and Financial Data, Kluwer Academic Press,
1999. Working paper
version.
- "A Frequency
Domain Test of Time Reversibility," (with M.J. Hinch)
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2, 1998, 72-88. Working paper version.
- "Forecasting
Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," Review of Economics and
Statistics, 80, 1998, 164-168.
- "Is the Size
Distribution of Income Stationary?," Research
on Economic Inequality, 8, 1998, 1-12.
- "The Current
Depth of Recession and Unemployment Rate Forecasts ,"
(with R. Parker) Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics,
2, 151-158, 1998. Working
paper version.
- "More
Uncertainty About the Unit Root in U.S. Real GNP, "
Journal of Macroeconomics, 19, 1997, 771-780.
- "FORTRAN
Programs for Running the TR Test: A Guide and Some Examples,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 1, 203-208, 1997.
- "Time
Reversibility," (with J.B. Ramsey) in Business Cycles and
Depressions: an Encyclopedia, D. Glasner
(ed.), Garland Press, 1997, 684-686.
- "International
Evidence on Business-Cycle Nonlinearity," in Nonlinear Dynamics
and Econometrics. Proceedings of the Tenth International Symposium in
Economic Theory and Economerics,
Barnett, W.A., A.P. Kirman, and M. Salmon
(eds.), Cambridge University Press, 1996, pp. 333-341. Also published in 1993
Proceedings of the American Statistical Association Business and Economic
Statistics Section , 238-243.
- "Time
Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," (with J.B. Ramsey) Journal
of Money, Credit, and Banking, 28, 1-21, 1996. Unpublished Appendix
(PDF File) Data
Files
- "Further
Evidence on the Stabilization of Postwar Economic Fluctuations,"
(with R. Parker) Journal of Macroeconomics, 18, 289-298, 1996.
- "Review of Chaotic
Dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,
26, 308-310, 1995.
- "The Time
Reversibility Test with Application to Financial Data," in Business
Cycles: Theory and Methods, Semmler, W. (ed.), Kluwer Academic
Publishers, 389-403, 1994.
- "Fractional
Integration Analysis of Long-Run Behavior for U.S. Macroeconomic Time
Series," (with N. Crato) Economics
Letters, 45, 287-291, 1994.
- "A
Reappraisal of Parity Reversion for U.K. Real Exchange Rates," Applied
Economics Letters , 1, 139-141, 1994.
- "Comment on
'Nonlinear Monetary Dynamics,' " (with J.B. Ramsey) Journal of
Business and Economic Statistics, 12, 135-136, 1994.
- "Further
Evidence of Stochastic Trends with Portuguese Data,
" (with N. Crato) Estudos de Economia,
13, 69-84, 1992.
- "The
Comparative Power of the TR Test Against Simple
Threshold Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 7,
Supplement, S187-S196, 1992. Republished in Nonlinear Dynamics,
Chaos, and Econometrics, Pesaran H. and
S. Potter (eds.), John Wiley and Sons, 229-237, 1993.
- "Further
Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Unemployment Rates Over the
Business Cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, 13,
291-298, 1991.
- "The
Statistical Properties of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets:
Economic Applications," (with J.B. Ramsey and C. Sayers) International
Economic Review, 31, 991-1020, 1990. Republished in Cycles
and Chaos in Economic Equilibrium, Benhabib,
J. (ed.), Princeton University Press, 394-428, 1992. Also reprinted in Chaos
Theory in Economics: Methods, Models, and Evidence, Dechert, W.D. (ed.), Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,
1996.
Last update: September 1, 2014. Link to: Philip Rothman's homepage