OMGT4743 - HW1

Paired Assignment

I will be assigning two unique problems to the class. I will pair off students in the class (note, one group may have three students). Each person will read the article and then prepare a one to two paragraph synopsis including purpose and main points.

The article entitled "7 Deadly Sins of Sales Forecasting" can be found here:  7DeadlySinsWhitepaper.pdf

Each pair of students will then be required to converse via the Canvas Discussions area and post their synopsis with their paired partner. I expect at least four exchanges for each pair of students (2 per each student = 4) the first set of posts can be introductory in nature whereas the second set can be the actual paragraphs.  For each pair of students, one of the pair start a new thread & name it accordingly for your group (e.g., Homeowrk#1DeadlySinsJohn/Novine), then use that thread to converse.

This exercise is to enhance interaction between you and your colleagues as well as foster interaction between the professor and all students. This exercise will be weighted 10% of the Homework #1 grade and those who complete the problems and discussion session will receive full credit for this portion of Homework #1.

DO NOT FORGET THE INDIVIDUAL PORTION OF THE ASSIGNMENT BELOW.

THE PAIRINGS FOR HOMEWORK #1 ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Last Name, First Name; ID
Last Name, First Name; ID
Becerra, Guadalupe; becerrag22 Paired with Horton, Chassie; hortonch21
Berrien, Grace; berrieng20 Paired with Hughes, Davis; hughesda21
Berry, Gabrielle; berryg22 Paired with Lambert, Evan; lamberte21
Birkett, Lauryn; birkettl21 Paired with Liddy, Jake; liddyj19
Budwan, Beker; budwanb21 Paired with MacDonald, Chase; macdonaldc22
Davis, Jayden; davisjayd20 Paired with Presley, Noah; presleyn21
Davis, Summer; daviss21 Paired with Richardson, Jake; richardsonj18
Desaulniers, Jackson; desaulniersj23 Paired with Rose, Jaxon; roseja20
Duncan, Gabe; duncanj19 Paired with Sanders, Tuscany; sanderst21
Hall-Rhodes, Ja Vonda; hallrhodesj18 Paired with Willis, Bryson; willisje22
Harper, Courtney; harperc22 Paired with Woolard, Gage; woolardg22
Harvey, Reece; harveyw20 Paired with Young, Carson; youngca18


Forecasting Philosophies - Individual Assignment

Clem has been given the following historical data for demand from 2006 to 2018 (refer to Table 1.1). In the past, the company has used a naïve forecasting model.  Her boss wants her to forecast demand for 2019 using a 3-year moving average.  However, she believes a 5-year moving average may be more accurate.  Help Clem develop a naïve, a 3-year moving average, and a 5-year moving average for demand and decide which forecasting model is more accurate (Hint:  employing an error measurement such as MAD would be advisable).

Once you have finished your analysis you are required to write up a one-page executive summary of the work.  I will speak to writing executive summaries more (see link below) but the document should be 1-page, single spaced, at least 10 pt font, and contain an intro statement, a problem statement/purpose, an analysis section, and a conclusion/recommendation section.  You need to include specific numbers in your analysis and your recommendations (e.g., the forecast for 2019 will be XXX or the models are performing well since MAD are X, Y, Z).  More info on writing Executive Summaries can be found by clicking this link Writing Guidelines.

Post your paired portion synopsis via the Canvas Discussions area & your individual portion to the Assignments area in Canvas, remembering to name your file(e) following the naming convention set down in the syllabus.

    Table 1.1   
Year Demand Year Demand
2006 30,000 2013 28,000
2007 28,000 2014 29,850
2008 32,000 2015 23,400
2009 23,000 2016 29,750
2010 34,000 2017 27,500
2011 24,000 2018 32,000
2012 31,400 2019 ???